A Snap Ontario Election
I’ve been arguing for a while that Ford would call an election either right before Family Day or March Break so that as few people are paying attention as possible. Low voter turnout always benefits incumbents.
The thinking is that Ford wants to hold a campaign while Trudeau is still on the national scene and available to blame for all of Ontario’s ills. With Trudeau’s resignation this past week, that window has now shortened.
I’ve previously said Ford would call an election shortly after the rules of the Liberal Party of Canada’s leadership race were set. Those rules were set yesterday and the race will now conclude on March 9 — the start of March Break. This means of Ford’s likely preferred election day options, the only one remaining is February 13.
That’s the Thursday before the Family Day long weekend since Ontario campaigns must be 28 days long and end on a Thursday. It’s also the day before Valentine’s Day and just a few short days after the Superbowl, for maximum distraction. If we work back 28 days, Ford will call the election next Thursday, January 16. I’ve heard rumours from some folks that he does indeed intend to call the election next week, making a January 16 starting gun very likely.
Ford can instead call an election on a few other dates and still wrap the election before Trudeau is gone or before his replacement tables a new Throne Speech on March 24 when Parliament is no longer prorogued (and expected to immediately fall).
Calling an election on January 23 would create an election day of February 20, the week after Family Day. Calling one on January 30 would create an election day of February 27. And finally, calling one on February 6 would create an election day of March 6.
All of these potential dates would still conclude before Trudeau is replaced as leader on March 9 and as PM shortly thereafter. None of these dates, however, put the election start date after the Superbowl on February 9. As John Michael McGrath of TVO points out, that means expensive ad buys.
Ford won’t be able to use huge ad buys paid by the Government of Ontario during the Superbowl to promote his government as he has in the past. However, if he calls the election for February 13, it does mean the ‘closing arguments’ week of the provincial campaign will take place during one of the most expensive ad periods of the year.
That might sound like something he would like to avoid. But the Ford Conservatives, unlike other parties, are flush with cash and can afford an expensive final push. Their opponents can’t. February 13 gives them a strategic advertising advantage over their opponents at exactly the right moment of the campaign.
Kicking off the campaign on January 16 also means starting the election during a crucial week for the Liberal Party of Canada leadership race. Next week, candidates will be working to pay at least a portion of the race fee by the candidate declaration deadline (January 23) and in the final ten days of a huge push to sign up eligible supporters before the January 27 voter eligibility deadline.
The leadership race will pull resources from the Ontario Liberal provincial campaign in terms of volunteers, donors, and media attention — all of which the Crombie campaign desperately needs. If the election runs from January 16 to February 13, it will take place exclusively during the leadership race.
I’m fairly convinced Doug will pull the plug as soon as possible on January 16. It will be on his opponents to demonstrate how economically reckless it is for Canada’s largest province to launch a distracting early election a week out from Trump’s inauguration while federal leadership is in transition.
Update:
Naturally, within hours of me theorizing about the early election, Ford has announced, as Chair of the Council of the Federation, that he will lead a trade mission to the US on February 12. I don’t believe even Doug Ford would spend the day before an election in a foreign country, so this pretty much rules out February 13 as Election Day.
Instead, Ford could push Election Day to Thursday, February 20, so that it falls after the Family Day long weekend and people forget about the vote as they get back into the swing of things. This would also mean Ford would get to play Captain Canada in the media a week out from Election Day, further boosting his support.
If he wanted to be particularly partisan, he would call the election for Thursday, March 6, so it coincides with the final push of the Liberal Party of Canada leadership race, draining the Ontario Liberal Party of any potential support from leadership candidates and their teams. That election would have to be called by Thursday, February 6.
Theresa served as Director of Communications to the Deputy Premier of Ontario and has over a decade of experience working in Canadian politics.
