An Early Look into the Green Party’s Campaign Prospects

A Note on Polling Data

For the sake of simplicity, I’m only going to refer to polls from one polling firm, Mainstreet Research, in the following analysis. Since I don’t have access to OLP’s internal polls in this election, I have subscribed to Mainstreet’s daily updates to get a better sense of how the election is playing out at the riding level. Those numbers are reserved for Mainstreet’s paid subscribers and I will respect that by not sharing those numbers here. What I will do in this post is cover in general who is up and down and which seats are in play for the Greens.

Growth Elections

The Green’s are hoping for another growth election. While they have existed in Ontario since 1983, they had their first breakthrough in 2018 when party leader Mike Schreiner won the Greens their first seat in Ontario by taking Guelph from the Liberals. They followed a similar strategy to the federal Greens by running candidates in every riding but focusing resources heavily on the leader’s local campaign.

2022 could be classified as a growth campaign for the party as well given they were able to place a strong second in Parry Sound-Muskoka to the PCs after the Liberals did not field a candidate. Then came a by-election in Kitchener Centre in 2023 where the Greens captured a second seat, taking this one from the NDP.

The Greens are therefore hoping for a three-peat where they hold both Guelph and Kitchener Centre and finally breakthrough in Parry Sound-Muskoka.

What the Polls Are Saying

So far the Greens are likely to hold the two seats they have and are in contention in one other riding. There is no obvious geographical boost to surrounding ridings as the party remains in fourth place everywhere else. The following is based on Mainstreet’s data as of February 7, 2025.

Green Incumbents

As mentioned, there are currently just two Green Party incumbents. Both are expected to keep their seats at this time.

• Guelph: Greens +32 over the PCs
• Kitchener Centre: Greens +6 over the NDP

Potential Gains

In addition, the Greens have a shot at one more riding, building on gains in past elections:

• Parry Sound-Muskoka: Greens -4 versus the PCs

The Greens went into this election focused on these three ridings and these numbers will be no surprise to the party. While they are polling higher than normal province-wide, it is unlikely to amount to even placing them third in any other ridings. Expect them to go all-in on these three races.

To view Mainstreet Research’s data yourself, visit their election dashboard here: https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/dashboard/ontario

Theresa has served as the Communications Coordinator for the Ontario Liberal Party, the Director of Communications to Ontario Deputy Premier Deb Matthews, and an election speechwriter for former Premier Kathleen Wynne. She owns a communications company operating out of Toronto.