An Early Look into the Ontario NDP’s Campaign Prospects

5 min readFeb 7, 2025

A Note on Polling Data

For the sake of simplicity, I’m only going to refer to polls from one polling firm, Mainstreet Research, in the following analysis. I have subscribed to Mainstreet’s daily updates to get a better sense of how the election is playing out at the riding level. Those numbers are reserved for Mainstreet’s paid subscribers and I will respect that by not sharing those numbers here. What I will do in this post is cover in general who is up and down and which seats are in play for the NDP.

Growth Elections

The last time the Ontario NDP experienced a “growth” election was in 2018. With a governing Liberal Party on the decline and a rising conservative threat in Doug Ford on the horizon, the NDP were able to pull in almost 800,000 more votes than they had in the previous election. It also allowed them to flip the following seats:

Beaches-East York
Brampton North
Davenport
Hamilton West — Ancaster — Dundas
Humber River-Black Creek
Kingston and the Islands
Kitchener Centre
London North Centre
Ottawa Centre
St. Catharines
Scarborough West
Spadina-Fort York
Thunder Bay-Atikokan
Toronto Centre
Toronto-St. Paul’s
York South Weston

They also won the new ridings of Brampton Centre, Kiiwetinoong, Mushkegowuk — James Bay, and University-Rosedale. Current NDP Leader Marit Stiles was part of this “Orange Crush”, taking Davenport back from the Liberals. She had a lot of company as every seat listed above was also previously a Liberal seat in 2014. Ultimately, the NDP took zero seats away from the conservatives and failed to stop them as they roared to power with over 2 million votes.

The 2022 Contraction

While the NDP would remain the official opposition after the 2022 campaign, they failed to break new ground. They wound up winning over around 800,000 fewer voters and lost seven seats from their previous total. They actually received fewer votes than the third place Liberals but had better vote efficiency, electing 31 NDP MPPs to the Liberals’ 8. The votes both parties received did surpass the total achieved by Doug Ford’s conservatives but progressive-vote splitting led to him actually increasing his party’s vote total despite earning over 400,000 fewer votes.

What the Polls Are Saying

Armed with a new leader, it’s unclear at this point how the NDP will fair in this election. Horwath had led them through every campaign since 2011. Despite having a new leader, they do have to wear two terms as the official opposition tasked with holding the Ford Government to account. Given all Ford has gotten away with, voters may consider looking to other options.

So far we’re seeing new signs of life in the NDP’s numbers but no huge momentum shift in the NDP’s favour. But it’s still early and the 2018 surge happened in the latter half of the campaign. The following is based on Mainstreet’s Data as of February 7, 2025.

NDP Incumbents

The following incumbents currently have a significant lead or a comfortable edge over their closest opponent:

Davenport: NDP +30 over the Liberals
Ottawa Centre: NDP +30 over the Liberals
Kiiwetinoong: NDP +25 over the PCs
Oshawa: NDP +19 over the PCs
Nickel Belt: NDP +18 over the PCs
Toronto — Danforth: NDP +15 over the Liberals
London — Fanshawe: NDP +12 over the PCs
Parkdale — High Park: NDP +12 over the Liberals
Waterloo: NDP +11 over the PCs
London West: NDP +9 over the PCs
Mushkegowuk — James Bay: NDP +8 over the PCs
Hamilton Mountain: NDP +7 over the PCs
Ottawa West — Nepean: NDP +6 over the PCs
Sudbury: NDP +6 over the Liberals

These NDP incumbents are in tighter races that could go either way depending on how voter support shifts over the campaign:

Windsor West: NDP +5 over the PCs
Niagara Falls: NDP +4 over the PCs
Timiskaming — Cochrane: NDP +4 over the PCs
London North Centre: NDP +1.5 over the Liberals
Scarborough Southwest: NDP +1.5 over the PCs
Hamilton West — Ancaster — Dundas: NDP +1 over the PCs

Not all NDP incumbents have an easy ride ahead of them. Several are in close races while two* are a distant third in seats they won in 2022:

St. Catharines: NDP -2 versus the PCs
Spadina — Fort York: NDP -4 versus the Liberals
Niagara Centre: NDP -6 versus the PCs
Thunder Bay — Superior North: NDP -10 versus the Liberals
University — Rosedale: NDP -11 versus the Liberals
Toronto Centre: NDP -14 versus the Liberals
Humber River — Black Creek: PCs +3 over the Liberals*
Toronto — St. Paul’s: Liberals +15 over the PCs*

Then there are the two seats the NDP likely don’t like to talk about. One was won by a long-time MPP who was kicked out of caucus for sexual misconduct allegations while the other was kicked out of caucus for her positions on the conflict in Israel-Gaza. The NDP is expected to hold both.

Algoma — Manitoulin: NDP +11 over the PCs
Hamilton Centre: NDP +17 over independent candidate

Potential Pick-Ups

Looking at Mainstreet’s data, there is actually nowhere on the map where the NDP is the runner up to a PC incumbent in danger. And given the Liberals have essentially hit rock bottom in back to back elections, it’s unlikely any of their incumbents, who are polling well, will be unseated in this campaign.

The math is hardest for the NDP given they struggle to breakthrough in crucial York Region, making up most of their caucus from Toronto, Southwest and Southcentral Ontario, and the North. They have made incursions in recent campaigns in Scarborough and Brampton. It remains to be seen whether they can continue that trend.

To view Mainstreet Research’s data yourself, visit their election dashboard here: https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/dashboard/ontario

Theresa has served as the Communications Coordinator for the Ontario Liberal Party, the Director of Communications to Ontario Deputy Premier Deb Matthews, and an election speechwriter for former Premier Kathleen Wynne. She owns a communications company operating out of Toronto.