Is Ontario Headed into a Fall Election?

On April 15, TVO journalist Steven Paikin wrote an article hinting at the possibility of an early election in Ontario. I found this interesting, not because the fixed election date is set to take place two years from now, but because of the source of the speculation.

As much as journalists observe politicos, politicos also observe journalists. From my observations, Steve has never been the politically speculative type, instead relying on information he receives from his well-connected network of contacts in each of Ontario’s political parties. My immediate thinking was that if he thought there was a chance of an early election, it’s because someone told him to expect one.

Flash forward to the past 24 hours, as speculation has ramped up that Ford is indeed considering calling an early election. This time, the news wasn’t floated as speculation by a single journalist. It was floated by PC insiders on background that they believe waiting until after the federal election in fall 2025 could turn the mood of Ontario’s electorate against Ford.

This process of slowly leaking and building up the idea of an early-election is all about inoculating the party that calls against backlash from voters. Still, these trial balloons could return an unpopular answer to Ford and scuttle his potential plans to hold a campaign this year. But they aren’t the only sign that an early campaign may be on its way.

Partisan Balance Between Queen’s Park and Parliament

There’s a long-held theory by many inside Ontario politics that says voters in this province will always elect a different party to Queen’s Park than the one they elect to Parliament. Most of our history reflects that theory. If Ford were to wait to run for re-election until after Poilievre becomes Prime Minister, he would no longer have a Liberal foil at the federal level to scapegoat on key issues like affordability and housing. Voters tend to paint all politicians from the same party with the same brush and whatever sticks to Poilevre has a chance of sticking to Ford.

Apparently PC insiders are worried that certain budget cuts from a Poilievre Government would make Ford’s job a lot tougher. And they wouldn’t be wrong. Ford’s success so far has been built on saying what people want to hear and then holding out his hand for Justin Trudeau to fund it. If the activist Trudeau Government is defeated, Ford will no longer have any cover when it comes to the many ways he’s failing to address the needs of Ontarians.

Ford’s Fundraising Advantage

Most of those speculating about an early election suspect it would come after a spring budget in 2025 when Ford can make some key promises and use government resources to promote his campaign under the guise he is just promoting the budget, as all governments do. This might make sense except for the fact that Ford has never run on policy — his campaign approach is all about personality.

His campaign successes so far are also driven by something else — money, and lots of it. While Ford talks about governing for the ‘little guy and gal’, he has made very few concrete policy commitments to the average voter and instead has spent much of his time in government using its levers to reward his campaign donors.

Ford gave in to Galen Weston and other billionaire business owners by cancelling minimum wage increases. He allowed long-term care home owners to escape liability over preventable COVID-deaths. And he is ramming highway 413 through key agricultural land at a time where food insecurity in Ontario is so bad that Food Banks Canada recently graded Ford’s Government with an F on its 2024 report card.

Ford’s donors in turn have given him an enormous fundraising lead over his opponents that, combined with the incumbency advantages that come holding government — like tax-payer funded salaries for your team — make the PCs hard to catch in the next election, regardless of when it’s called. But that fundraising advantage is bigger when the expiring per-vote subsidy that opposition parties rely on is not given the chance to pay out in full thanks to an early election call.

An Improving Economic Outlook

There are other reasons to believe that an election might come even earlier than most people expect. It’s my understanding that federal finance experts are expecting the economy to be humming again starting this fall. While very little of the blame from the affordability crisis has fallen on Ford, good economic times almost always benefit the incumbent government, especially when they are conservative.

That’s because, despite data demonstrating the opposite as true, conservatives are seen as better for the economy than progressives. Ford is a prime example of this mistaken belief. The Fraser Institute of all places recently stated that if Ford had kept his spending in line with McGuinty or Wynne, taxpayers would have saved $6–7 billion dollars this year.

Yet despite Ford’s frequent flip-flops in government costing the province’s taxpayers billions, his folksy way of talking about affordability still holds sway with voters. A rebounding economy and falling inflation can only help his narrative.

Outrunning Scandal

Another reason why Ford might want to campaign now instead of spring 2025 or spring 2026 is the mounting scandals that may get bigger with time. Just yesterday, Ontario’s Privacy Commissioner indicated that her report on the use of personal emails by Ford and his team related to the Greenbelt scandal is not imminent and would only land after a batch of freedom of information (FOI) appeals are dealt with. An early election could mean Ford is not impacted by this report at all ahead of the next vote.

Then there’s the RCMP’s criminal investigation into the scandal. While Ford says his office has been cooperating, we still know very little about the investigation, when it might wrap up, or whether we will be told anything new about the scandal. An early election allows Ford to get out ahead of this investigation before he has to suffer any consequences from voters.

What’s Beer Got to Do With It

When you ask people what Ford promised to do in government, the only real policy that rings a bell is buck-a-beer. Ford tried and failed to implement that policy and instead pivoted to expanding Wynne-era efforts to liberalize alcohol access in the province by breaking up Ontario’s alcohol monopoly and expanding sales to corner stores and grocery stores.

Ford was on his way to breaking up that monopoly but instead of waiting until existing agreements with the Beer Store ran out 16 months from now, Ford decided to instead ramp up the timeline at a cost of $225 million to taxpayers.

At a time when hospital emergency rooms and childcare centers are closing across the province because of a lack of funding, two questions immediately come to mind: 1) Aren’t there more pressing emergencies to tend to than expediting corner store alcohol sales? and 2) aren’t there better uses for a quarter of a billion dollars right now in Ontario?

The only reason to narrow focus like this to a policy loved by Ford’s core voters is to shore up their support ahead of an early election. Especially if speeding up wider alcohol access can happen ahead of the summer party season when alcohol sales explode (the only month that sees higher sales than July and August is December).

The Summer Campaign Season

Launching this policy change now means Ford can hit the summer BBQ circuit — a setting he thrives in — celebrating a win for his core voters. Calling an election for the fall, especially if it were to take place just after Labour Day weekend, would give him his ideal style of campaign — low stakes, crowd-filled outdoor events with friendly faces surrounding him, allowing him to keep up his happy warrior persona for the cameras. You might call it the Ford Fest Campaign.

Contrast that to the alternative of a spring election. Spring showers are a tour captain’s nightmare — just ask Rishi Sunak’s team once the UK campaign is over — and often send campaign announcements reluctantly inside. Instead of being surrounded by throngs of supporters, Ford would be grilled by journalists in tight indoor quarters as he stands stiffly behind a podium and struggles to get out prepared remarks. I’m already getting flashbacks of Stephen Harper delivering remarks in 2015 as journalists stand several metres away behind a rope line. It didn’t work for Harper who voters expected to be stiff. It certainly wouldn’t help folksy Ford.

Launching this policy ahead of the Legislature’s summer recess also gives his MPPs something to talk about when they are at home in their ridings this summer. And his MPPs are another plus for his campaign should he decide to call an election this summer. The Ford PCs currently hold 80 of 124 seats in the Legislature, giving them a huge advantage when it comes to nominating candidate in time for the cut-off date. Ford simply has to reappoint them and find another 44 people to fill the rest of the ridings. The Ontario Liberals practically have to start from scratch.

Undercutting the Opposition

Speaking of the Liberals, the biggest reason for Ford to roll the dice on a fall (or spring) campaign is his chief opponent, Bonnie Crombie. Bonnie is an experienced politician who won’t need the same breathing room as most new party leaders to grow as a compelling speaker ahead of a campaign. What she will need time for is to catch up to Ford on fundraising, solidify her central campaign team, nominate her candidate team, and set a policy agenda backed by messaging compelling enough to help her leap-frog from third to first.

All of that takes time. Every month that Ford waits until June 2026 gives her more of it. Bonnie officially took over the job of Leader of the Ontario Liberal Party in January, which means she hasn’t even been on the job for six months yet. That’s not a lot of time to put a team in place, to engage with party members and potential candidates, or to land on and finesse your pitch to voters.

Next Steps for the Ontario Liberal Party

One of the biggest mistakes politicos make is treating the campaign like it begins when the writs drop, rather than the moment the last election wrapped up. Laying the groundwork for victory has to take place every day in between campaigns. That work began in the Ontario Liberal Party under its interim leader and is being picked up now by the new leader’s team.

That’s good news for anyone hoping for an alternative to Ford in the next campaign. The people I’ve spoken to in the party and on Bonnie’s team haven’t been caught flat-footed by the idea of an early election. They know they have a lot of work to do a shrinking window of time to get it done.

My advice to them would be to open up the nomination process as early as possible — think start of summer rather than the end. I would work to quickly solidify roles on the central campaign so that there are clear responsibilities and lines of communication, allowing the team to build some chemistry and trust ahead of the writ period (if you’re still in that phase after the writs have dropped, you’ll inevitably score a lot of own-goals). Perhaps most importantly (since I’m biased towards the importance of narrative), I would craft a narrative for Bonnie and for what the party has to offer voters and I would use those message frames to set the policy agenda.

Then I would craft a message-focused platform that lays out the challenges Ontarians are facing right now and those that lie ahead in the future. In my mind, the core anxiety facing today’s voters is the cost-of-living struggles younger people are facing and how older voters feel they won’t be able to pass on a secure future to their children and grandchildren.

Ford has failed to protect this dream and his constant flip-flopping is proof he has no plan to get it back on track. Ontario Liberals must tell voters how they will restore the middle-class dream for this and future generations. And they need to start now, because for all intents and purposes, the campaign is already underway.

Theresa has served as the Communications Coordinator for the Ontario Liberal Party, the VP Communications for the Ontario Women’s Liberal Commission, the Director of Communications to Ontario Deputy Premier Deb Matthews, and an election-speechwriter for former Premier Kathleen Wynne. As a member of ‘Team Neutral’, she helped manage the 2013 and 2020 OLP Leadership races.