The Trudeau Revolt is Growing

Trudeau listening in on my remarks about two-way communication with voters at the 2012 LPC(O) AGM.

Back at the start of June, I wrote this piece about the uphill battle facing the Prime Minister in the next election. The morning after the Toronto-St. Paul’s by-election loss, I wrote another piece stating it was time for him to retire from Canadian politics. (You can read a summary of the arguments I made in both pieces at the bottom of this piece.)

Where Things Stand

Since then, pressure for the PM to step down has been gaining steam while a show of support for his continued leadership has been lukewarm. Here’s a summary of what’s been said so far (with links to each comment):

Trudeau Should Go:

• Christy Clark, Former Premier of BC: “In my experience, if people don’t feel like the country is going in the right direction — and clearly Canada isn’t going in the right direction right now — they will blame the leader and they should… I want the Liberal party that I used to vote for to come back.”
• Catherine McKenna, Former Minister of Environment: “The prime minister has a legacy to be proud of but it’s time for new ideas, new energy and a new leader. There is too much at stake in this election especially on the economy and climate.”
• Wayne Long, MP: “For the future of our party and for the good of our country we need new leadership and a new direction. The voters have spoken loud and clear they want change. I agree.”
• Percy Downe, Senator: Believes the party has “gone too far left” under Trudeau and previously called for him to step down
• John Manley, Former Deputy Prime Minister: “My view is that he can’t win the next election. And I think for his benefit, and for the party’s, he should really take a close look at turning the leadership over sooner rather than leaving it too late.”
• Jody Wilson-Raybould, Former Minister of Justice: “+1”.
• Wayne Easter, Former MP: “The issue for the Liberal party, the Liberal brand anywhere, is the prime minister. Bow out gracefully… You need a different voice, a different tenor, a different policy approach.”
• Frank Baylis, Former MP: Reportedly weighing a leadership bid.

Trudeau Should Stay:

• Chrystia Freeland, Deputy Prime Minister: “The prime minister is committed to leading us into the next election and he has our support.”
• Steven Guilbeault, Minister of Environment: “Prime Minister Trudeau has my full support.”
• Marc Miller, Minister of Immigration: Trudeau should “Absolutely stay on… The quicker that we can get back on the horse and keep fighting for Canadians, I think the better.”
• Mark Holland, Minister of Health:
• Dan Vandal, Minister of Northern Affairs: “100 per cent supportive of the Prime Minister going forward as our leader.”

On the Fence:

• François-Philippe Champagne, Minister of Industry: “The leader is the leader. We need to focus now on what matters to Canadians.”
• Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, MP: “Forget the anonymous quotes from Liberal MPs. If anyone has a say, it should be grassroots members.”
• George Chahal, MP: “We the undersigned would like to add our voices to those who have called for an immediate, in-person national caucus meeting in Ottawa to discuss the extremely concerning results in the Toronto St. Paul’s byelection.”
• Patrick Weiler, MP: Trudeau needs some “serious reflection”.
• Julie Dabrusin, MP: Reportedly concerned about re-election chances.
• James Maloney, MP: Reportedly concerned about re-election chances.
• Rob Oliphant, MP: Reportedly concerned about re-election chances.
• Ken McDonald, MP: “Well said” in response to Wayne Long’s email to caucus but has not called for Trudeau to step down
• Marcus Powlowski, MP: “In a lot of people’s minds, the Liberal party has become synonymous with concepts like ‘woke’ culture, cancel culture and identity politics. I think it has alienated a lot of people.”
• Kathleen Wynne, Former Premier of Ontario: “There is going to be such pressure on him now — not to leave so much as come up with a reason that he should stay… My heart has gone out to Justin all day — I’ve just been thinking about him, what a tough place he’s in.”
• David Lametti, Former Minister of Justice: “We’re here because he brought us here in 2015, and so he’s earned the right to decide.”
• Lloyd Axworthy, Former Minister of Foreign Affairs: “They should be using the time to change course in many ways… I think it’s time that there be a little bit more of a reckoning… I think they have to start thinking in more expansive, bigger terms and give Canadians something really fresh and important to think about in terms of where the country is going.”

Why Trudeau Should Step Down

If you missed my two earlier pieces or haven’t been hearing from Liberal supporters, here’s some of the reasons I’ve laid out for why Trudeau should step down. I have received a lot of private messages from other Liberals agreeing with these points.

Here’s a summary of the reasons Trudeau should step down:

• A fourth mandate is historically unlikely: No Canadian PM has won a fourth straight mandate in over 100 years and Trudeau would have to match the political skills of Mcdonald and Laurier (the only two who have done it) to succeed
• Voters want change: Trudeau continues to state he wants to stay on to finish what he’s started, maintaining the new status quo he’s built
• Trudeau’s negatives are higher than his positives: In recent polling, the negative traits voters associate Trudeau with are now higher than his positive traits
• Trudeau is dragging down the brand: Recent polling shows that if the Liberals were to pick a new leader, the party’s poll numbers would rise
• Liberal support has collapsed: The Liberals have been trailing the Conservatives in the polls for over two years and are still on a downward trajectory (Ontario Liberals fell for three years and brutally lost in 2018)
• Policy is no longer moving voters: The Liberals’ budget policy reset has not moved voters back toward the party and there is no sign that further resets will reach voters who have fully tuned out Trudeau
• Macro-economic trends don’t move voters: Economic improvement in the fall will do little to boost support as voters stress out about the cost-of-living crisis around the kitchen table
• A Trump victory won’t scare off voters: Attempts to tie Canadian Conservatives to MAGA Republicans have done little to move voters to date even as they import their slogans, policy fights, and rage-farming
• Progress is on the chopping block: Voters will suffer as Conservatives dismantle the progress Trudeau has made, especially if the Liberal Party fails to recover from the scale of the loss on the horizon

Ultimately the decision will be up to the Prime Minister. But the amount of pressure he experiences over the next few weeks might force him to rethink his current stance on staying on.

Theresa has served as the Communications Coordinator for the Ontario Liberal Party, the VP Communications for the Ontario Women’s Liberal Commission, the Director of Communications to Ontario Deputy Premier Deb Matthews, and an election-speechwriter for former Premier Kathleen Wynne. As a member of ‘Team Neutral’, she helped manage the 2013 and 2020 OLP Leadership races.