Voting Strategically at Advance Polls and on Election Day

8 min read5 days ago

Advance polls will take place this week from February 20–22. Election Day will follow just a week later on Thursday, February 27. That means strategic voters who want to prevent the re-election of the Ford Government—or at least keep it to a minority—are running out of time to decide who to cast their ballots for.

If you’ve been reading any of my content during this election, you’ll know that I am a former Liberal staffer. I’ve voted Liberal in almost every election, though I have also voted for the NDP at the federal level. I’ve also worked alongside Liberal and NDP organizers at the municipal level. While I wish my friends well on the campaigns they are running for the Ontario Liberals and the Ontario NDP, my biggest priority is to see Doug Ford’s destructive government held to account.

So, with millions headed to the polls over the next ten days, I’m going to weigh in on how I think strategic voters should cast their ballots in the dozens of ridings where strategic voting could actually make the difference on Election Day.

Note: I have not included ridings that are a clear two-way race between progressive opposition parties. I am only including races where there is a chance at flipping a conservative-held seat or holding a progressive seat to prevent it from growing Ford’s caucus. All seat projections are based on Mainstreet Research data for February 16. All recommendations are based on my own opinions.

Toronto

Toronto ridings generally swing in predictable ways with Etobicoke and North York/Midtown always being a battle between the PCs and Liberals while Scarborough is often a three-way race between the PCs, Liberals, and NDP. Downtown is largely a contest between the NDP and Liberals where progressives can simply vote for the party they prefer. Humber River-Black Creek and York South-Weston are outliers, situated closely to Etobicoke but the former swings Liberal-NDP while the latter has seen the PCs, Liberals, and NDPs all be competitive in recent campaigns.

Don Valley North

Incumbent: Vincent Ke (Independent)
Past Results: PC (2018, 2022)
Current Polling: Liberals +12 over the PCs
Recommendation: Liberal

Eglinton-Lawrence

Incumbent: None (PC)
Past Results: Liberal (2014), PC (2018, 2022)
Current Polling: Liberals +27 over the PCs
Recommendation: Liberal

Etobicoke Centre

Incumbent: Kinga Surma (PC)
Past Results: Liberal (2014), PC (2018, 2022)
Current Polling: PCs +3.5 over the Liberals, +43 over the NDP
Recommendation: Liberal

Etobicoke-Lakeshore

Incumbent: Christine Hogarth (PC)
Past Results: Liberal (2014), PC (2018, 2022)
Current Polling: Liberals +16 over the PCs
Recommendation: Liberal

Humber River-Black Creek

Incumbent: Tom Rakocevic (NDP)
Past Results: Liberal (2014), NDP (2018, 2022)
Current Polling: Liberals +10 over the PCs
Recommendation: Liberal

Scarborough-Agincourt

Incumbent: Aris Babikian (PC)
Past Results: Liberal (2014), PC (2018, 2022)
Current Polling: PCs +1.5 over the Liberals, +41 over the Greens
Recommendation: Liberal

Scarborough Centre

Incumbent: David Smith (PC)
Past Results: Liberal (2014), PC (2018, 2022)
Current Polling: Liberals +4.5 over the PCs
Recommendation: Liberal

Scarborough North

Incumbent: Raymond Cho (PC)
Past Results: PC (2018, 2022)
Current Polling: PCs +9 over the Liberals, +37 over the NDP
Recommendation: Liberal

Scarborough — Rouge Park

Incumbent: Vijay Thanigasalam (PC)
Past Results: PC (2018, 2022)
Current Polling: PCs +8 over the Liberals, +30 over the NDP
Recommendation: Liberal

Willowdale

Incumbent: Stan Cho (PC)
Past Results: Liberal (2014), PC (2018, 2022)
Current Polling: Liberals +7 over the PCs
Recommendation: Liberal

York Centre

Incumbent: Michael Kerzner (PC)
Past Results: Liberal (2014), PC (2018, 2022)
Current Polling: PCs +4 over the Liberals, +39 over the NDP
Recommendation: Liberal

York South-Weston

Incumbent: None (PC)
Past Results: Liberal (2014), NDP (2018), PC (2022)
Current Polling: PCs +4 over the Liberals, +10 over the NDP
Recommendation: Liberal

Durham, Halton, Peel, and York Region

While seats can and do flip in the core 905 and this area tends to be what ultimately tips an election in the winning party’s favour, the vote is fairly stable here. In York Region, the race is always between the PCs and the Liberals. In Peel, the chief challenger to the PCs in Brampton can be the Liberals or the NDP while in Mississauga only the Liberals are competitive. In Durham, Liberals are the primary challenger to the PCs except in Oshawa and sometimes neighbouring Whitby where the NDP do better. In Halton, the race tends to be between the PCs and the Liberals.

Ajax

Incumbent: Patrice Barnes (PC)
Past Results: PC (2018, 2022)
Current Polling: PCs +7 over the Liberals, +27 over the NDP
Recommendation: Liberal

Mississauga-Lakeshore

Incumbent: Rudy Cuzzetto (PC)
Past Results: Liberal (2014), PC (2018, 2022)
Current Polling: Liberals +1 over the PCs
Recommendation: Liberal

Mississauga East-Cooksville

Incumbent: Kaleed Rasheed (PC)
Past Results: Liberal (2014), PC (2018, 2022)
Current Polling: Liberals +14 over the PCs
Recommendation: Liberal

Mississauga-Erin Mills

Incumbent: Sheref Sabawy (PC)
Past Results: PC (2018, 2022)
Current Polling: PCs +5 over the Liberals, +32 over the NDP
Recommendation: Liberal

Oakville

Incumbent: Stephen Crawford (PC)
Past Results: Liberal (2014), PC (2018, 2022)
Current Polling: PCs +9 over the Liberals ,+ 37 over the Greens
Recommendation: Liberal

Oshawa

Incumbent: Jennifer French (NDP)
Past Results: NDP (2014, 2018, 2022)
Current Polling: PCs +2 over the NDP, +35 over the Greens
Recommendation: NDP

Hamilton, Burlington, and Niagara

Southcentral Ontario tends to be a fight between the PCs and the NDP. While the Liberals held seats here in the McGuinty years, it’s been a while since their governing coalition has included many MPPs from this area.

Hamilton Centre

Incumbent: Sarah Jama (Independent)
Past Results: NDP (2014, 2018, 2022)
Current Polling: PCs +0.3 over the NDP, +11 over the Liberals
Recommendation: NDP

Cambridge, Kitchener, and Waterloo

The tri-city area tends to swing regularly between all of the parties on offer. It’s currently largely held by the PCs but has been represented by the Liberals, NDP, and Greens in recent memory.

Kitchener Centre

Incumbent: Aislinn Clancy (Green)
Past Results: Liberal (2014), NDP (2018, 2022), Green (2023)
Current Polling: Greens +5 over the PCs
Recommendation: Green

London

London was once the Liberals’ southwestern stronghold but largely flipped to the NDP in the Wynne years. All three ridings are now at risk of a PC sweep.

London-Fanshawe

Incumbent: Teresa Armstrong (NDP)
Past Results: Liberal (2014), NDP (2018, 2022)
Current Polling: NDP +1 over the PCs
Recommendation: NDP

London North Centre

Incumbent: Terence Kernaghan (NDP)
Past Results: NDP (2014, 2018, 2022)
Current Polling: PCs +1 over the NDP, +15 over the Liberals
Recommendation: NDP

London West

Incumbent: Peggy Sattler (NDP)
Past Results: NDP (2014, 2018, 2022)
Current Polling: PCs +2 over the NDP, +12 over the Liberals
Recommendation: NDP

Windsor

Windsor was another Liberal stronghold in the McGuinty area but flipped to the NDP under Wynne. It’s flipped again to the PCs under Ford with the exception of Windsor West. The PCs look poised to sweep this area as well.

Windsor West

Incumbent: Lisa Gretzky (NDP)
Past Results: NDP (2014, 2018, 2022)
Current Polling: PCs +2 over the NDP, +43 over the Greens
Recommendation: NDP

Peterborough

Peterborough and its surrounding area is considered by some to be a bellwether community when it comes to predicting who will form government.

Peterborough-Kawartha

Incumbent: Dave Smith (PC)
Past Results: Liberal (2014), PC (2018, 2022)
Current Polling: PCs +9 over the Liberals, +21 over the NDP
Recommendation: Liberal

Ottawa and Eastern Ontario

Ottawa was once called “Fortress Ottawa” by McGuinty era Liberal staff. The party held on to many of these ridings during the Wynne majority in 2014 but lost some to the NDP once Ford took office. In wider Eastern Ontario, the Liberals still hold on to Kingston thanks to the popularity of local MPP (and former MP) Ted Hsu.

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell

Incumbent: Stéphane Sarrazin (PC)
Past Results: Liberal (2014), PC (2018, 2022)
Current Polling: PCs +2 over the Liberals, +37 over the NDP
Recommendation: Liberal

Nepean

Incumbent: None (PC)
Past Results: PC (2018, 2022)
Current Polling: PCs +2 over the Liberals, +21 over the NDP
Recommendation: Liberal

Ottawa West-Nepean

Incumbent: Chandra Pasma (NDP)
Past Results: Liberal (2014), PC (2018), NDP (2022)
Current Polling: NDP +2 over the PCs
Recommendation: NDP

Northern Ontario

Northern Ontario is enormous and has varied politics depending on the area you focus on. The NDP, PCs, and Liberals have all held and lost seats here while the Greens have been making inroads in Parry Sound-Muskoka.

Algoma — Manitoulin

Incumbent: Michael Mantha (Independent)
Past Results: NDP (2014, 2018, 2022)
Current Polling: PCs +5 over the NDP, +20 over the Liberals
Recommendation: NDP

Mushkegowuk — James Bay

Incumbent: Guy Bourgouin (NDP)
Past Results: NDP (2018, 2022)
Current Polling: PCs +4 over the NDP, +17 over the Liberals
Recommendation: NDP

Parry Sound-Muskoka

Incumbent: Graydon Smith (PC)
Past Results: PC (2014, 2018, 2022)
Current Polling: PCs +9 over the Greens, +36 over the Liberals
Recommendation: Green

Timiskaming-Cochrane

Incumbent: John Vanthof (NDP)
Past Results: NDP (2014, 2018, 2022)
Current Polling: PCs +9 over the NDP, +23 over the Liberals
Recommendation: NDP

Thunder Bay — Superior North

Incumbent: Lise Vaugeois (NDP)
Past Results: Liberal (2014, 2018), NDP (2022)
Current Polling: Liberals +5 over the PCs
Recommendation: Liberal

Thunder Bay — Atikokan

Incumbent: Kevin Holland (PC)
Past Results: Liberal (2014), NDP (2018), PC (2022)
Current Polling: PCs +5 over the Liberals, +17 over the NDP
Recommendation: Liberal

Some Caveats

Polling is just a point-in-time snapshot of how the electorate is feeling (in this case, as reflected in Mainstreet Research’s data for February 16). And while there has been little change in the numbers throughout this campaign, small changes can make a difference in tight ridings. The leaders’ debate may still shake up the numbers overall which could have a knock-on effect in local ridings. Then there’s the fact that strategic voting is not for everyone — some voters want to cast their ballot for the candidate they support the most rather than one they believe is tolerable and that can win locally.

My own view is that we should have a good sense of where the numbers will ultimately end up by the time advance polls open on February 20. If any of the opposition parties begin to pick up steam after the debate, that momentum could still build heading into Election Day, redrawing the map in terms of riding projections. For some strategic voters living in ridings with close races, it may be worth waiting to vote on Election Day to see which way things are breaking. But if there is little change early this week, I recommend voting early to avoid the potential for bad weather on Election Day.

Theresa has served as the Communications Coordinator for the Ontario Liberal Party, the Director of Communications to Ontario Deputy Premier Deb Matthews, and an election speechwriter for former Premier Kathleen Wynne. She owns a communications company operating out of Toronto.